Many media sellers finally gave up on meeting their 2008 targets last week, after the continuing financial meltdown sent Lehman hurtling to liquidation, Merrill into a fire sale and AIG into the arms of the federal government. Now media players are girding for intense battles over share of shrinking ad budgets.
“During these times — and they experienced this in 2001 and 1987 — there’s a flight to quality,” Mr. Rooney added. “We are experiencing that now as well, where people say, ‘Look, I’m going to work with fewer companies and do more.’ That puts a lot of demands on us. I need more added-value programs, I need more big ideas, I need more events.”
Several executives at other newspapers said they anticipate a campaign from Bank of America once its acquisition of Merrill Lynch, a $37.1 million ad spender last year, is a done deal. Bank of America has been calling around about placements, they said, even if it has not secured any while the deal remains pending.
On a tear
But they don’t deny that the stakes are huge or that much more damage lies ahead. Financial advertising had been on a tear, growing 5.9% to $9.2 billion last year from $8.7 billion in 2006, according to TNS Media Intelligence. Its growth stalled in the first half of 2008, totaling $4.5 billion and only matching the $4.5 billion spent in the first half of 2007. Look for a big decline in the second half of this year — and ripple effects pressuring budgets even for those not directly involved in the meltdown.
That financial-ad spending decline is also expected to drag down the overall U.S. ad market, which had been anticipating a meager 2% gain for the whole year despite the Beijing Olympics and the presidential election, according to the latest projection from forecasting dean Bob Coen. He will revise that projection in December but declined to comment last week.
Bruce Goerlich, Zenith Optimedia’s president for strategic resources in North America, is working on a new forecast due for publication in early October. “It doesn’t make things look good,” he said. Marketers’ uncertainty about sales is the biggest threat, he said. “If you’re uncertain about that, obviously what you’re going to do is cut back your spending.”
American International Group, which is being bailed out and taken over by the federal government, has already pulled all its corporate advertising from TV for the rest of the year. The company spent more than $50 million in the first half of the year on TV, according to TNS Media Intelligence. Network executives declined to comment last week.
TV and cable networks contacted for this story were all quick to decline comments on the outlook for the year, following last week’s turmoil.
No relief online
Even online, usually everyone’s favorite bright spot, a 27% decrease in spending by financial-services companies dragged overall internet image advertising down 6% in the first half, Nielsen Online said last week.
Ad-industry analysts appear more concerned with the domino effect of such distressing news on consumers. The moves “could affect unemployment drastically over time, which affects travel and credit cards and consumer spending. I think there is more of a long-term effect for us than there is short term,” said Donna Speciale, president-investment and activation at Publicis’ MediaVest USA.
“We’re going to see a big hit,” Ms. Malley said. She predicted that the magazine would finish the year down in the high single digits.
As the cuts loom and land, National Geographic is trying to prepare for the next cycle, Ms. Malley said. “There are other challenged categories,” she said. “Before this happened we were seeing slipping in other key categories. Our whole focus is how we get ourselves positioned to be first at the gate when the advertiser is ready to tell their message.”
Cutting costs immediately
That means talking to clients and agencies about the National Geographic brand, the magazine’s ability to target within its audience and assemble integrated programs, Ms. Malley said. But “positioning” also means cutting spending now. “Do you need to make that trip or could you make a conference call?”
Merrill Lynch has been a very strong advertiser with Time magazine, said Ed McCarrick, its worldwide publisher. “We’re sorry to see Merrill Lynch fall on hard times,” he said.
But those still standing had better advertise themselves boldly before the crisis ends, according to Mr. McCarrick. “Bank of America is going to have a story to tell with the Merrill acquisition,” he said. “I’d be out there talking about those brand values, relating to the customer not to be nervous. Times of adversity are the time to go out and herald the values of your brand. When it turns, you will be in that much stronger position.”
Mr. Goerlich, the Zenith executive, reinforced that notion. “All the research shows that if you maintain or increase your spending in a recession, you increase your share.”
But financial companies don’t necessarily need such costly media buys. Last week Raymond James e-mailed individual investors to say, in effect, that they better stick with them. It cited the recent dark news for the futures of “once-stalwart” financial-services firms Merrill Lynch and Lehman Bros.
“It is natural to question how other financial-services firms are faring during the credit crunch, brought about by the turmoil in the housing industry and subprime mortgages,” wrote Raymond James.
Image source: Adage.com